- The swift rebound in asset prices (most notably risk assets) since March 23rd low was initially driven by 1) the increased likelihood of a technical retracement (as has been the case in prior market crashes of comparable size) and 2) the size and speed of global policy responses, both monetary & fiscal.
- We’re reaching another key inflection point as policymakers weigh the cost-benefit of additional stimulus measures. Any reduction in fiscal support will be met with heavy resistance, especially from struggling SMEs and millions of unemployed; another $1T+ relief package is probable, though demand for US government debt will be key to monitor as increased Treasury issuance ramps up.
- In the short run, non-sovereign scarce assets (i.e. BTC & Gold) could be challenged by increased deflationary pressures. However, such conditions would undoubtedly force policymakers to provide even greater monetary relief, compounding our conviction in bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as a hedge against fiat currency debasement.