After 1,081 days of waiting, Bitcoin finally reached a new all time high earlier this week. But what’s next for the world’s largest crypto asset?
This month’s Bitcoin Outlook is jam packed with on-chain data, market cycle forecasts, a breakdown of key trading trends, market analysis, and several indicators our team is tracking as we head into year-end. See below for a taste of what’s inside!
- Our proprietary UTXO analysis is starting to mirror past cycles with significant implications for BTC. The recent peak in long-term holders has historically preceded major bitcoin bull runs.
- The supply of BTC held on exchange has fallen 20% since it reached an all time high in February.
- Institutional investors have not only turned net long since September but also the magnitude of their net exposure, measured in BTC, has increased relative to prior periods as well.
- In the month of November, Bitcoin saw record breaking volume / OI levels across the derivatives market.
- Last time bitcoin broke to a new ATH in early 2017, BTC initially sold off, recovered, retested, broke to a new high, and then corrected another ~25% before continuing its uptrend. Further consolidation from here wouldn’t be surprising nor cause for concern long-term, in our view.
- BTC’s 14- week RSI has only surpassed 85 six times prior to last week, so we know our sample size is quite limited. In the short run, bitcoin’s performance is a toss up; if we extend the time horizon to 12 months, bitcoin’s price was higher in every instance but one, which also happened to be the last time its 14-week RSI broke above 85.
- Key short-term risks include extreme readings on the Fear & Greed Index, US dollar reversal, higher real rates, and a tightening liquidity environment that could cause a sell-off in risk asset and a spike in market volatility.