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The Aftermath of One Big Macro Trade

Oct 15, 2020 · 6 min read

By Kevin Kelly, CFA

The Aftermath of One Big Macro Trade

The risks of insolvency and deflation were core themes in our latest Macro Outlook report and for good reason. Yet many have inquired as to what happens in the aftermath of a deflationary period and what does that mean for Bitcoin and crypto? And how is all this money printing not hyperinflationary? I know, it sounds counterintuitive, but time horizon is very critical in this particular context.

Here’s what we know: the economic “recovery” has stalled, COVID-19 is still a major problem, and officials elected “by the people, for the people” can’t seem to put their swords away at the expense of millions of American livelihoods.

In the short run, quantitative easing won’t drive consumer spending nor spur an economic boom; it isn’t even directly inflationary for that matter. Credit creation and, therefore, money supply growth, is primarily driven by the banking sector. If banks won’t le

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