“That ignorance of macro is no virtue, and so I really appreciate having these conversations, because I go back to my team, and I say guys, I know we think we’re geniuses right now, and every conversation that we’re having in every Monday and Thursday partner meetings is all about this company just got a higher price term sheet, and this company is being approached by a SPAC and they’re getting more money. It’s all good news. The history of our firm is not about all good news…we have no bad news across the portfolio, which to me, portends bad news.” — Josh Wolfe, Co-founder & Managing Partner, Lux Capital.
As a macro strategist turned crypto enthusiast, I’m always on the lookout for parallels between traditional markets and the exciting new world of digital assets. One theme that’s crept back into the limelight is the latest bout of excessive speculation in the equity market, and I’m not just talking about last week’s retail-fueled GameStop drama; fund managers have increased their risk appetite considerably in recent months, largely on the back of a “reflation” narrative that few dare to question.
As a result, we’ve seen major stock market indices breach new highs and inflation-sensitive assets like commodities get off to their second best start of any year in the last decade. Asset prices are up, hedging is down, and venture capital funding is fresh off its biggest year on record. Similarly, private