Key Takeaways
  • Bitcoin experienced its worst one-day % decline since March 12th last year. Historically, similar sell-offs have proven to be attractive entry points with bitcoin averaging a ~28% return in the 14 days following a one-day decline of 15% or more since 2013; BTC was positive in ~72% of prior instances over the same period.
  • Surprisingly, supply on exchanges declined from 2.418m to 2.344m, with Coinbase accounting for 80% of those outflows. Typically you see net inflows taking place when price starts to pick up as users move bitcoin to exchanges to sell.
  • The percent of supply unmoved for at least 1 year reached a peak in September and October (~63%) before beginning its descent in the back half of October as bitcoin’s price started to rally. Although the decline in this metric has been consistent, it really accelerated as Bitcoin began to show strength in mid December, declining by over 2.5% since then.
Healthy Pullbacks

Bitcoin experienced its worst one-day % decline since March 12th last year, a day that still lives in infamy (“Black Thursday”). We noted in an impromptu markets note that same day how such violent sell-offs often present attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors. Bitcoin’s latest drop isn’t quite as extensive but it does offer a similar opportunity for those with long-term conviction who’ve been quietly hoping

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