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Quarter in Review, Macro Correlations, and HODL Strength

Jul 1, 2021 · 3 min read

By Ashwath Balakrishnan, and Jeremy Ong

Market Update

The market opened the day on a weak note with BTC down 4% today. But BTC bounced off $33,000, and its holding pretty well for now. DeFi tokens are seeing a strong bounce, with COMP and MKR leading the way, up 18% and 14% respectively.

Re-balancing or the End of a Cycle?

BTC consecutively recorded it’s best Q1 and worst Q2 performance since 2014. The dispersion of returns across quarters and years is irregular, indicating that there’s no real pattern in the quarterly return profile. But BTC had one of its best runs in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, recording a gain of 169% and 103% respectively. In light of that, Q2’s poor performance may have been a re-balancing event, and the second half of the year will provide more clarity on whether that was truly the case.

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