In this report, we dig into Bitcoin’s outlook as BTC enters back into the limelight after taking a backseat to the “summer of DeFi” craze. We unpack notable long-term indicators, exchange, and holder base metrics, as well as possible near term headwinds.
- We have seen a slight dip in the % of unmoved supply in the past year over the past week. After reaching an all-time high of around 63.5% unmoved supply on September 9th, we currently sit at around 62.4%.
- While local maximums for ‘weak hands’ trends downwards, we can not confirm that the recent speculative base increase has formed a top. With that said, the larger trend suggests long-term holders are populating short-term age bands rather than speculators.
- On Feb 11th, 2020, BTC on exchanges hit its all-time high of 2.96M. As of writing, BTC on exchanges sits at 2.47 M.
- After fluctuating around 1 post-2018 bear market, the SOPR has found support around 1. This is indicative that we have moved out of a bear market (march sell-off).
- As of writing, 96% of all addresses are in profit. Using the last bull cycle as a comparable, on the way to BTC’s all-time high, we can see multiple price corrections that are preceded by BTC addresses passing into the 95% in-profit zone.
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